FEATURE ADDRESS

Despite the 21st century being an age of disorder, it is not without precedent.

Two dominant narratives shape how we interpret today’s instability. Some scholars argue that the rise of right-wing populism, climate change, and AI make the 21st century wholly unique, while others see echoes of the 20th century’s World Wars and Cold War rivalry.

Yet both camps are overly Western-centric. 20th century’s dominance of Western powers tempts policymakers to rely on familiar analogies, which blinds them to non-Western precedents.

A more apt historical comparison lies in the 17th century’s global “general crisis.” Like today, the 17th century saw widespread rebellions/wars, the rise of absolutist rulers, scientific revolution and demographic decline – suggesting the roots of modern disorder are cyclical, not singular.

Today’s global landscape highlights crisis of trust, power and change.

Erosion of trust in institutions have become systemic. While post-war societies believed in the benevolence of the state to provide solutions, citizens today increasingly distrust state institutions in terms of competence and legitimacy.

The rise of “strongmen” leaders is reshaping political systems worldwide. Unlike ideologically driven autocrats of the 20th century, today’s strongmen personalise regimes around themselves, centralising power across all governance types and prioritising their own preferences.

The acceleration of technological and structural shifts are destabilising societies. Climate change, AI and robotics are accelerating transformations in trade, labour and politics, mirroring the scientific and climatic upheavals of the 17th century.

Disorder can redefine the global balance of power.

It is possible for the current instability to last decades, not years. The 17th century “general crisis” spanned nearly a century, challenging the assumption that our current volatility will resolve quickly like the 20th century crises did.

Today’s disorder will likely feature fragmentation and regionalisation. The 17th century saw Asia’s once-connected world break apart into fragmented regions. The 21st century may follow a similar path, moving away from a unified global order towards regional spheres of influence.

Countries across Asia and the Global South may now hold the adaptive advantage. From the 17th century, we see Europe emerging as the new global powerhouse because it was more accustomed to instability and adaptability. Today, the Asian and Global South economies appear better equipped to navigate uncertainty than a West still anchored to past assumptions.

Quotes

“History will never exactly repeat itself, but analogies are helpful to think with in terms of imagining potential scenarios and outcomes.”

“If we’re looking for historical analogies, I think the 17th century is a much better candidate than the 20th century in understanding our current global order.”
– Prof Ayşe Zarakol